The aftermath of the COVID crisis and the ongoing Ukraine conflict has been a surge in inflation to level not seen in a long time. From globalization and fear of deflation to friend-shoring and fear of inflation. Looking back at the last 40 years, summer 1982 marked the start of...
I recently wrote in an SGG Portfolio report: This is the 5 years US treasury Yield. The upper part of the chart is the PPO or Percentage Price Oscillator. The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is a momentum oscillator that measures the difference between two moving averages as a percentage of...
I have focused most of my stock market comments on the US stock market. Why? Since the GFC of 2008 which originated in the USA; money managers and investors had to do one choice. Allocate 100% of their equity exposure to the US stock market, in particular to the Nasdaq...
Market structure is an important driver of the price action. We all agree that excess liquidity is an important item but we need to understand better its impacts. I deeply believe that we are in a derivative bubble where cash price action has mainly become a derivative of the...
I have highlighted in previous posts that the diversification rule has been a drag to any investor, in particular to Non-US Investors. Since the GFC 2009 March low, the Nasdaq (QQQ etf) is the best performer of the world. (Red line is Nasdaq 100 vs total world with a...
You may have come across some info in regard to the Basel III potential impact on Gold price. Here is an article by Mathew Piepenberg via GoldSwitzerland.com, which covers pretty well the changes. The way I look at it is that physical gold price will probably become the main...
Here is an excerpt of a recent report which can provide you with a different view. The US equity market has been for years the main driver behind performance. Are we reaching an inflection point? You can download the PDF here: site post report
Following-up on my December 6th, 2020 post , there was a link about a great work done by Christopher Cole from Artemis Capital (The Allegory of hte Hawk and the Serpent). Here is a great interview he made last year with Danielle DiMartino https://youtu.be/SkfgEZtJ9LA
The above chart is the ratio of the ETFs ITOT & VT and the green line is the USD currency index. ITOT tracks a market cap-weighted index of all common equities listed on the NYSE and the NASDAQ. VT tracks a market-cap-weighted index of global stocks covering 98% of the...
The two charts are a just an illustration over time of how I best view the principal driving forces behind the markets. What matters here, are the proportions and their respective empirical evolution. It varies countries from countries but since we all use the same monetary/economic system, the trip is...
