The Random Walk Theory most clearly laid out by Burton Malkiel, an economics professor at Princeton University, posits that the price of securities moves randomly and that, therefore, any attempt to predict future price movement, either through fundamental or technical analysis, is futile. SGG investment approach has been much focus...
The rise of 0DTE (zero day to maturity options) is a recent phenomenon. Option volume has really taken off during Q4 2022 and has deeply impacted market behavior and structure. For the ones not really fully acquainted with the matter, May 2022 is the month where it all started....
SGG believes that the market structure is an important behavior factor. Technology and computing power are definitively important drivers. The Investment management industry has been highly commoditized and the rise of passive investment is a result. When I say "Commoditized" it means that financial products suppliers profit margins have shrunk...
Volatility has been a long-time focus for SGG. It is becoming now a permanent flexible allocation of SGG portfolio. SGG believes that excess interventionism by central banks and governments is the main source of a higher volatility regime for many years. Download the document for a full overview of SGG approach. SGG...
Back in July 2021 and May 2021, I wrote : "I believe that COVID 19 has unleashed the full power of the BTFD mind set. It is so powerful that it could become an unprecedent FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) wave. A race which could push indices with relative...
2022 first half has been quite harsh to many investors. Inflation readings are high with Bonds and Equities prices punishing most. One of the great frustration has been the lack of true volatility explosion. In fact equity volatility, VIX has been quite stable. The black line is the 6 months...
I recently wrote in an SGG Portfolio report: This is the 5 years US treasury Yield. The upper part of the chart is the PPO or Percentage Price Oscillator. The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is a momentum oscillator that measures the difference between two moving averages as a percentage of...
In the analytical process of my portfolio approach I highlight these five interconnected points. To simplify! In a strong trend, each tends to confirm the behavior of the other. Ex: strong bull trend will show a great majority of stock trending higher (homogeneity & breadth), Credit spreads compressing, general optimism,...
Just a few ones.... I have focused quite a bit on the US equity market in previous posts, since it has been the lone World leader since 2008. It remains the leader, in relative terms. The US equity mkt has been the excess liquidity recipient. However, the derivatives mkt is...
I have focused most of my stock market comments on the US stock market. Why? Since the GFC of 2008 which originated in the USA; money managers and investors had to do one choice. Allocate 100% of their equity exposure to the US stock market, in particular to the Nasdaq...
