The Random Walk Theory most clearly laid out by Burton Malkiel, an economics professor at Princeton University, posits that the price of securities moves randomly and that, therefore, any attempt to predict future price movement, either through fundamental or technical analysis, is futile. SGG investment approach has been much focus...
I have focused most of my stock market comments on the US stock market. Why? Since the GFC of 2008 which originated in the USA; money managers and investors had to do one choice. Allocate 100% of their equity exposure to the US stock market, in particular to the Nasdaq...
I have highlighted in previous posts that the diversification rule has been a drag to any investor, in particular to Non-US Investors. Since the GFC 2009 March low, the Nasdaq (QQQ etf) is the best performer of the world. (Red line is Nasdaq 100 vs total world with a...
Following-up on my December 6th, 2020 post , there was a link about a great work done by Christopher Cole from Artemis Capital (The Allegory of hte Hawk and the Serpent). Here is a great interview he made last year with Danielle DiMartino https://youtu.be/SkfgEZtJ9LA
Link to above video Let's say you are in orbit looking at earth. Looks great but you do not have much clues about how frantic things can be down. Most have already seen Candle Charts. I like the because they give a clear view of the price fluctuation during the selected...
The two charts are a just an illustration over time of how I best view the principal driving forces behind the markets. What matters here, are the proportions and their respective empirical evolution. It varies countries from countries but since we all use the same monetary/economic system, the trip is...
In "Something seems to have changed" , I highlight the "commodity like behaviour" the S&P 500 index seems to have "adopted". Among the many charts I follow, here is one which shows the relationship between the SKEW index and the Equity PUT/CALL ratio. The SKEW index is a measure of potential risk...
Back in July, I wrote a post about the market structure. This led me to a lot of chart drawing, reading, interviews watching etc... because when it comes to equity markets (US in particular), something seem to have changed. Yes, liquidity (QE & Co) has to with it but...
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The World Federation of Exchanges publishes interesting articles and information on a monthly basis. Unfortunately, the august 2020 figures are not yet available. I find interesting the last chart about the derivatives volumes. For the last two years, total volume has more than doubled. Is this: the sign of...
