The massive COVID stimuli and the Ukraine war have brought inflation that most of us have never experienced. The price of money, interest rates, have gone up aggressively since last year. I did underestimate the inflation shoot up as the FED but there are a few things we need...
Back in July 2021 and May 2021, I wrote : "I believe that COVID 19 has unleashed the full power of the BTFD mind set. It is so powerful that it could become an unprecedent FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) wave. A race which could push indices with relative...
2022 first half has been quite harsh to many investors. Inflation readings are high with Bonds and Equities prices punishing most. One of the great frustration has been the lack of true volatility explosion. In fact equity volatility, VIX has been quite stable. The black line is the 6 months...
In the analytical process of my portfolio approach I highlight these five interconnected points. To simplify! In a strong trend, each tends to confirm the behavior of the other. Ex: strong bull trend will show a great majority of stock trending higher (homogeneity & breadth), Credit spreads compressing, general optimism,...
Obs: if you click on the charts you get a wide picture I like to use the PRING Inflation and Deflation index. Deflation-sensitive stocks include industry groups such as banks, insurers utilities and so forth. These equities tend to outperform when economic conditions are either weak or in the early phase...
I have focused most of my stock market comments on the US stock market. Why? Since the GFC of 2008 which originated in the USA; money managers and investors had to do one choice. Allocate 100% of their equity exposure to the US stock market, in particular to the Nasdaq...
The unprecedent COVID fiscal impulses are behind the hot "flation" debate. Expectations are getting more anchored which is, in my view, the principal headache for the FED. Google Trend provides us with a good "anxiety" snaphot of the situation. Bear in mind that inflation is a lagging indicator and...
Inflation has been showing its teeth and the "Flation" debate has been running hot. On my side, I tend to believe that we are still facing a last deflationary stress ( money velocity is rock bottom and bank lending or new money creation, is weak). However, I do believe...
