In a nutshell US Budget Deficit is someone else surplus. Was it too much? Well, the FED is trying to manage the situation. Higher inflation, higher interest rates and DSR (Debt Service ratio) across the board. Beneath the surface of higher nominal economic growth, evidences are mounting that things are not so rosy. Inflation...
Back in July 2021 and May 2021, I wrote : "I believe that COVID 19 has unleashed the full power of the BTFD mind set. It is so powerful that it could become an unprecedent FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) wave. A race which could push indices with relative...
2022 first half has been quite harsh to many investors. Inflation readings are high with Bonds and Equities prices punishing most. One of the great frustration has been the lack of true volatility explosion. In fact equity volatility, VIX has been quite stable. The black line is the 6 months...
In the analytical process of my portfolio approach I highlight these five interconnected points. To simplify! In a strong trend, each tends to confirm the behavior of the other. Ex: strong bull trend will show a great majority of stock trending higher (homogeneity & breadth), Credit spreads compressing, general optimism,...
The unprecedent COVID fiscal impulses are behind the hot "flation" debate. Expectations are getting more anchored which is, in my view, the principal headache for the FED. Google Trend provides us with a good "anxiety" snaphot of the situation. Bear in mind that inflation is a lagging indicator and...
The two charts are a just an illustration over time of how I best view the principal driving forces behind the markets. What matters here, are the proportions and their respective empirical evolution. It varies countries from countries but since we all use the same monetary/economic system, the trip is...
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Nine years ago (august 2011), the Swiss National Bank (SNB) abandoned its EURCHF peg policy! Currency volatility hit extremes at the time but it marks an important regime change which has led to a constant over performance of the US stock market. Today the SNB holds an investment portfolio...
