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July 2023

MOVING TO SUBSTACK

Yes... moving to Substack !  Why?  Managing plugins and the admin side of a site is kind of annoying when you are not a specialist.  Substack feels much more user friendly and easy for what I need. The new address is: https://stowgrowglow.substack.com/   www.stowgrowglow.com will remain active for the time being. kind regards  

February 2023

It seems that the Treasury market has made its vote between Soft – Hard or no Landing

In a nutshell US Budget Deficit                 is someone else surplus. Was it too much? Well, the FED is trying to manage the situation. Higher inflation, higher interest rates and DSR (Debt Service ratio) across the board.   Beneath the surface of higher nominal economic growth, evidences are mounting that things are not so rosy. Inflation...

How things can change is more important than how they are !

The massive COVID stimuli and the Ukraine war have brought  inflation that most of us have never experienced. The price of money, interest rates, have gone up aggressively  since  last year.  I did underestimate the inflation shoot up as the FED but there are a few things we need...

January 2023

Some charts for thoughts

The aftermath of the COVID crisis and the ongoing  Ukraine conflict has been a surge in inflation to level not seen in a long time. From globalization and fear of deflation to friend-shoring and fear of inflation. Looking back at the last 40 years,  summer 1982 marked the start of...

June 2022

Is debt still the gravity anchor of our monetary pendulum?

I recently wrote in an SGG Portfolio report: This is the 5 years US treasury Yield. The upper part of the chart is the PPO or Percentage Price Oscillator. The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is a momentum oscillator that measures the difference between two moving averages as a percentage of...

April 2022

Portfolio Navigation

In the analytical process of  my portfolio approach I highlight these five interconnected points. To simplify! In a strong trend, each tends to confirm the behavior of the other. Ex: strong bull trend will show a great majority of stock trending higher (homogeneity & breadth), Credit spreads  compressing,  general optimism,...

March 2022

Charts & Thoughts for the Road: Market Structure -Volatility – Behavior 2022/03

Just a few ones.... I have focused quite a bit on the US equity market  in previous posts, since it has been the lone World leader since 2008.  It remains the leader, in relative terms. The US equity mkt has been the excess liquidity recipient. However, the derivatives mkt is...

Charts & Thoughts for the Road – Gold & Commo 2022-03

Obs: if you click on the charts you get a wide picture I like to use the PRING Inflation and Deflation index. Deflation-sensitive stocks include industry groups such as banks, insurers utilities and so forth. These equities tend to outperform when economic conditions are either weak or in the early phase...

November 2021