In a nutshell US Budget Deficit is someone else surplus. Was it too much? Well, the FED is trying to manage the situation. Higher inflation, higher interest rates and DSR (Debt Service ratio) across the board. Beneath the surface of higher nominal economic growth, evidences are mounting that things are not so rosy. Inflation...
The massive COVID stimuli and the Ukraine war have brought inflation that most of us have never experienced. The price of money, interest rates, have gone up aggressively since last year. I did underestimate the inflation shoot up as the FED but there are a few things we need...
Volatility has been a long-time focus for SGG. It is becoming now a permanent flexible allocation of SGG portfolio. SGG believes that excess interventionism by central banks and governments is the main source of a higher volatility regime for many years. Download the document for a full overview of SGG approach. SGG...
Back in July 2021 and May 2021, I wrote : "I believe that COVID 19 has unleashed the full power of the BTFD mind set. It is so powerful that it could become an unprecedent FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) wave. A race which could push indices with relative...
I have focused most of my stock market comments on the US stock market. Why? Since the GFC of 2008 which originated in the USA; money managers and investors had to do one choice. Allocate 100% of their equity exposure to the US stock market, in particular to the Nasdaq...
The unprecedent COVID fiscal impulses are behind the hot "flation" debate. Expectations are getting more anchored which is, in my view, the principal headache for the FED. Google Trend provides us with a good "anxiety" snaphot of the situation. Bear in mind that inflation is a lagging indicator and...
Richard Werner (Princes of the Yen and...) is always on the top of my list. Take your time (less than 30 min) because it will help you get a clearer picture. One thought popped in my mind while watching. Could ultra low/negative interest rates policies induce a negative loop when...
The US stock market remains the undisputed driver of the rally. However, as highlighted in previous posts, I tend to believe that we are in a derivative bubble du to the massive increase in trading volumes. Somehow cash market price action has become a derivative of the derivatives but the...
I have highlighted in previous posts that the diversification rule has been a drag to any investor, in particular to Non-US Investors. Since the GFC 2009 March low, the Nasdaq (QQQ etf) is the best performer of the world. (Red line is Nasdaq 100 vs total world with a...
Following-up on my December 6th, 2020 post , there was a link about a great work done by Christopher Cole from Artemis Capital (The Allegory of hte Hawk and the Serpent). Here is a great interview he made last year with Danielle DiMartino https://youtu.be/SkfgEZtJ9LA
