In a nutshell US Budget Deficit is someone else surplus. Was it too much? Well, the FED is trying to manage the situation. Higher inflation, higher interest rates and DSR (Debt Service ratio) across the board. Beneath the surface of higher nominal economic growth, evidences are mounting that things are not so rosy. Inflation...
Nov 2021 Mckinsey published "The rise and rise of the global balance sheet or.... How productively are we using our wealth? As its says: Assets on the world's balance sheet in 2020 totaled $ 1540 trillion, or +18 times GDP and up from 13.2 times GDP in 2000 Real assets like...
2022 first half has been quite harsh to many investors. Inflation readings are high with Bonds and Equities prices punishing most. One of the great frustration has been the lack of true volatility explosion. In fact equity volatility, VIX has been quite stable. The black line is the 6 months...
Just a few ones.... I have focused quite a bit on the US equity market in previous posts, since it has been the lone World leader since 2008. It remains the leader, in relative terms. The US equity mkt has been the excess liquidity recipient. However, the derivatives mkt is...
I have focused most of my stock market comments on the US stock market. Why? Since the GFC of 2008 which originated in the USA; money managers and investors had to do one choice. Allocate 100% of their equity exposure to the US stock market, in particular to the Nasdaq...
Richard Werner (Princes of the Yen and...) is always on the top of my list. Take your time (less than 30 min) because it will help you get a clearer picture. One thought popped in my mind while watching. Could ultra low/negative interest rates policies induce a negative loop when...
Following-up on my December 6th, 2020 post , there was a link about a great work done by Christopher Cole from Artemis Capital (The Allegory of hte Hawk and the Serpent). Here is a great interview he made last year with Danielle DiMartino https://youtu.be/SkfgEZtJ9LA
The above chart is the ratio of the ETFs ITOT & VT and the green line is the USD currency index. ITOT tracks a market cap-weighted index of all common equities listed on the NYSE and the NASDAQ. VT tracks a market-cap-weighted index of global stocks covering 98% of the...
The two charts are a just an illustration over time of how I best view the principal driving forces behind the markets. What matters here, are the proportions and their respective empirical evolution. It varies countries from countries but since we all use the same monetary/economic system, the trip is...
In "Something seems to have changed" , I highlight the "commodity like behaviour" the S&P 500 index seems to have "adopted". Among the many charts I follow, here is one which shows the relationship between the SKEW index and the Equity PUT/CALL ratio. The SKEW index is a measure of potential risk...
