The Random Walk Theory most clearly laid out by Burton Malkiel, an economics professor at Princeton University, posits that the price of securities moves randomly and that, therefore, any attempt to predict future price movement, either through fundamental or technical analysis, is futile. SGG investment approach has been much focus...
The aftermath of the COVID crisis and the ongoing Ukraine conflict has been a surge in inflation to level not seen in a long time. From globalization and fear of deflation to friend-shoring and fear of inflation. Looking back at the last 40 years, summer 1982 marked the start of...
Volatility has been a long-time focus for SGG. It is becoming now a permanent flexible allocation of SGG portfolio. SGG believes that excess interventionism by central banks and governments is the main source of a higher volatility regime for many years. Download the document for a full overview of SGG approach. SGG...
Back in July 2021 and May 2021, I wrote : "I believe that COVID 19 has unleashed the full power of the BTFD mind set. It is so powerful that it could become an unprecedent FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) wave. A race which could push indices with relative...
Nov 2021 Mckinsey published "The rise and rise of the global balance sheet or.... How productively are we using our wealth? As its says: Assets on the world's balance sheet in 2020 totaled $ 1540 trillion, or +18 times GDP and up from 13.2 times GDP in 2000 Real assets like...
2022 first half has been quite harsh to many investors. Inflation readings are high with Bonds and Equities prices punishing most. One of the great frustration has been the lack of true volatility explosion. In fact equity volatility, VIX has been quite stable. The black line is the 6 months...
I recently wrote in an SGG Portfolio report: This is the 5 years US treasury Yield. The upper part of the chart is the PPO or Percentage Price Oscillator. The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is a momentum oscillator that measures the difference between two moving averages as a percentage of...
In the analytical process of my portfolio approach I highlight these five interconnected points. To simplify! In a strong trend, each tends to confirm the behavior of the other. Ex: strong bull trend will show a great majority of stock trending higher (homogeneity & breadth), Credit spreads compressing, general optimism,...
I have highlighted in previous posts that the diversification rule has been a drag to any investor, in particular to Non-US Investors. Since the GFC 2009 March low, the Nasdaq (QQQ etf) is the best performer of the world. (Red line is Nasdaq 100 vs total world with a...
You may have come across some info in regard to the Basel III potential impact on Gold price. Here is an article by Mathew Piepenberg via GoldSwitzerland.com, which covers pretty well the changes. The way I look at it is that physical gold price will probably become the main...
