The Random Walk Theory most clearly laid out by Burton Malkiel, an economics professor at Princeton University, posits that the price of securities moves randomly and that, therefore, any attempt to predict future price movement, either through fundamental or technical analysis, is futile. SGG investment approach has been much focus...
SGG believes that the market structure is an important behavior factor. Technology and computing power are definitively important drivers. The Investment management industry has been highly commoditized and the rise of passive investment is a result. When I say "Commoditized" it means that financial products suppliers profit margins have shrunk...
The aftermath of the COVID crisis and the ongoing Ukraine conflict has been a surge in inflation to level not seen in a long time. From globalization and fear of deflation to friend-shoring and fear of inflation. Looking back at the last 40 years, summer 1982 marked the start of...
Back in July 2021 and May 2021, I wrote : "I believe that COVID 19 has unleashed the full power of the BTFD mind set. It is so powerful that it could become an unprecedent FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) wave. A race which could push indices with relative...
I recently wrote in an SGG Portfolio report: This is the 5 years US treasury Yield. The upper part of the chart is the PPO or Percentage Price Oscillator. The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is a momentum oscillator that measures the difference between two moving averages as a percentage of...
I have focused most of my stock market comments on the US stock market. Why? Since the GFC of 2008 which originated in the USA; money managers and investors had to do one choice. Allocate 100% of their equity exposure to the US stock market, in particular to the Nasdaq...
Market structure is an important driver of the price action. We all agree that excess liquidity is an important item but we need to understand better its impacts. I deeply believe that we are in a derivative bubble where cash price action has mainly become a derivative of the...
I have highlighted in previous posts that the diversification rule has been a drag to any investor, in particular to Non-US Investors. Since the GFC 2009 March low, the Nasdaq (QQQ etf) is the best performer of the world. (Red line is Nasdaq 100 vs total world with a...
You may have come across some info in regard to the Basel III potential impact on Gold price. Here is an article by Mathew Piepenberg via GoldSwitzerland.com, which covers pretty well the changes. The way I look at it is that physical gold price will probably become the main...
The above chart was published on my twitter account. It is about the OBV (On Balance Volume) for the e-mini futures contracts of the S&P 500 index. The market was moving up and "Hedgers" were in a situation to be "forced" buying. Indeed, the OBV increased by 36% (contracts 22M...
